Election 2012: Generic Presidential Ballot

Election 2012: Generic Republican 47%, Obama 41%

From Rasmussen

A generic Republican now holds a six-point advantage over President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 match-up for the week ending Sunday, October 2.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds the generic Republican earning 47% support, while the president picks up 41% of the vote. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Last week, the generic Republican and the president were essentially tied. Since weekly tracking began in early May, the Republican has earned 43% to 49% support, while the president has picked up 40% to 45% of the vote.

Rasmussen Reports will provide new data on this generic matchup each week until the field of prospective Republican nominees narrows to a few serious contenders.

President Obama leads most of the current GOP hopefuls aside from New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who is not running, and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who he’s essentially tied with. For a complete listing of all the most current matchups, click here.

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The survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted September 26-October 2, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

So far this year, the president’s overall job approval, measured in the Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Tracking Poll, has ranged from a low of 42% to a high of 51%. If the election were held today, a president’s approval rating is a good indicator of how much support he would receive. Any incumbent earning under 50% of the vote is considered politically vulnerable.

The generic GOP candidate leads among male voters by 13 points and runs even with the president among female voters.

Voters under 30 continue to favor Obama, while their elders like the Republican better.

Voters not affiliated with either major political party prefer the Republican candidate by a 45% to 34% margin.

Most Tea Party members (89%) support the generic Republican. Among non-members, Obama leads 52% to 35%.

Two-out-of-three (66%) in the Political Class opt for Obama, while 55% of Mainstream voters support the generic Republican.

In the latest Generic Congressional Ballot, Republicans have jumped back to a six-point lead over Democrats. This is the widest gap between the two parties in a month of weekly tracking.

As of now, the 2012 Republican Presidential Primary race is all about Perry and Romney, with no other candidate reaching double-digit support. Among GOP voters in New Hampshire, Romney is the clear favorite over Perry, 39% to 18%.

The number of Republicans and Democrats in the country is just about even. In fact, the gap between the parties is the smallest it has ever been in nearly nine years of monthly tracking.