By Toby Harnden
So how do we make sense of what happened last night? No one but no one (feel free to correct me if I'm wrong) predicted that Rick Santorum might win all three states on what turned out to be Loopy Tuesday. Mitt Romney remains the frontrunner but the former US Senator for Pennsylvania is clearly a force to be reckoned with.
Here are 10 things to understand about Santorum's second surge and what it means for Romney, Republicans - and President Barack Obama.
1. Santorum is not Romney
It may seem tough to start off with a negative but Santorum's success perhaps says more about Romney than Tuesday night's victor himself. Indisputably, Romney is a hard candidate for grassroots Republicans to love and his conservative bona fides will always be open to question.
Though many Republicans respect Romney or can tolerate him or can calculate in their heads that he should be their nominee, they can't fall in love with him. Ultimately, they may not need to. But this makes the road to the nomination a rocky one for Romney, involving a series of candidates in the ABM (Anyone But Mitt) slot, the latest of whom is Santorum.
So how do we make sense of what happened last night? No one but no one (feel free to correct me if I'm wrong) predicted that Rick Santorum might win all three states on what turned out to be Loopy Tuesday. Mitt Romney remains the frontrunner but the former US Senator for Pennsylvania is clearly a force to be reckoned with.
Here are 10 things to understand about Santorum's second surge and what it means for Romney, Republicans - and President Barack Obama.
1. Santorum is not Romney
It may seem tough to start off with a negative but Santorum's success perhaps says more about Romney than Tuesday night's victor himself. Indisputably, Romney is a hard candidate for grassroots Republicans to love and his conservative bona fides will always be open to question.
Though many Republicans respect Romney or can tolerate him or can calculate in their heads that he should be their nominee, they can't fall in love with him. Ultimately, they may not need to. But this makes the road to the nomination a rocky one for Romney, involving a series of candidates in the ABM (Anyone But Mitt) slot, the latest of whom is Santorum.
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| Rick Santorum campaigns in Nashua, New Hampshire. Photo: Toby Harnden |
2. Santorum is a movement conservative
Santorum is a genuine conservative, socially, fiscally and in terms of foreign policy. He speaks the language in a way that Romney doesn't.
As Rush Limbaugh put it recently: "He [Romney] just doesn't have conservative reflexes. It's like trying to learn golf late in life: The reflexes just aren't there. You've got to have a foundation, a basic understanding to have the reflexes, and they just aren't there. And I don't know if he can learn 'em."
Santorum has the foundation and the reflexes and he talks the language that conservative activists understand and can relate to.
3. Santorum has remained positive
Going negative on Newt Gingrich in Florida was good in the short term for Romney and he probably had no other realistic option. But it carried medium-term consequences (last night) and perhaps long-term ones as well.
Gingrich's angry, peevish and intemperate responses to Romney did him a lot of damage. Romney got under his skin and it was not attractive to see. Floating above all this was Rick Santorum, campaigning largely positively and based on his ideas rather than on what a bum the other guys were.
4. Santorum is a happy warrior
Romney is much improved from 2008 but he remains a somewhat robotic candidate who finds it difficult to achieve a gut connection with voters. Campaigning sometimes seems almost painful to him
A big part of this may well be Romney's background. As Naomi Zeveloff argues in this illuminating piece, he's the "ultimate Mormon male" - with all the very good that entails but also the downsides: "The very qualities that make a good Mormon man, however, make for a poor campaigner."
Santorum, by contrast, is at home on the campaign trail - as well he should be, having virtually taken up residence in Iowa for the caucuses - and that makes him a lot easier to relate to. In the Senate, Santorum had a reputation as a prickly character but he has become noticeably more relaxed and affable as the 2012 race has progressed.
5. Santorum is a Tea Partier
There have been plenty of Tea Party obituaries written but the Tea Party, whie amorphous and diffuse, is not dead. It was the motive force behind the Republican wave in 2010 and it is a major factor this time around as well. Doubtless with an eye on the general election, Romney has done no serious Tea Party outreach.
The Tea Party is populist and to a large degree blue collar. Although best known as a social conservative, Santorum's blue collar roots and populist economic message makes him a natural Tea Party figure - whereas Romney is in many ways the epitome of the establishment candidate.
Of course, there are complicating factors in this - particularly Santorum's record on earmarks - but for the time being Santorum is a more natural fit with the Tea Party than Gingrich, never mind Romney.
Santorum is a genuine conservative, socially, fiscally and in terms of foreign policy. He speaks the language in a way that Romney doesn't.
As Rush Limbaugh put it recently: "He [Romney] just doesn't have conservative reflexes. It's like trying to learn golf late in life: The reflexes just aren't there. You've got to have a foundation, a basic understanding to have the reflexes, and they just aren't there. And I don't know if he can learn 'em."
Santorum has the foundation and the reflexes and he talks the language that conservative activists understand and can relate to.
3. Santorum has remained positive
Going negative on Newt Gingrich in Florida was good in the short term for Romney and he probably had no other realistic option. But it carried medium-term consequences (last night) and perhaps long-term ones as well.
Gingrich's angry, peevish and intemperate responses to Romney did him a lot of damage. Romney got under his skin and it was not attractive to see. Floating above all this was Rick Santorum, campaigning largely positively and based on his ideas rather than on what a bum the other guys were.
4. Santorum is a happy warrior
Romney is much improved from 2008 but he remains a somewhat robotic candidate who finds it difficult to achieve a gut connection with voters. Campaigning sometimes seems almost painful to him
A big part of this may well be Romney's background. As Naomi Zeveloff argues in this illuminating piece, he's the "ultimate Mormon male" - with all the very good that entails but also the downsides: "The very qualities that make a good Mormon man, however, make for a poor campaigner."
Santorum, by contrast, is at home on the campaign trail - as well he should be, having virtually taken up residence in Iowa for the caucuses - and that makes him a lot easier to relate to. In the Senate, Santorum had a reputation as a prickly character but he has become noticeably more relaxed and affable as the 2012 race has progressed.
5. Santorum is a Tea Partier
There have been plenty of Tea Party obituaries written but the Tea Party, whie amorphous and diffuse, is not dead. It was the motive force behind the Republican wave in 2010 and it is a major factor this time around as well. Doubtless with an eye on the general election, Romney has done no serious Tea Party outreach.
The Tea Party is populist and to a large degree blue collar. Although best known as a social conservative, Santorum's blue collar roots and populist economic message makes him a natural Tea Party figure - whereas Romney is in many ways the epitome of the establishment candidate.
Of course, there are complicating factors in this - particularly Santorum's record on earmarks - but for the time being Santorum is a more natural fit with the Tea Party than Gingrich, never mind Romney.
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| Romney is much improved from 2008 but he remains a somewhat robotic candidate |
6. The issues are moving Santorum's way
This may be temporary but in the past fortnight or so we've had an uptick in the US economy. This has meant that the issue on which Romney is probably strongest has receded somewhat in the minds of Repubican primary voters. At the same time, Obama's war on the Catholic church, the Proposition 8 ruling and the Susan G. Komen for the Cure affair have shifted the national debate towards cultural issues.
7. Santorum can appeal to Reagan Democrats
As Hot Air's Ed Morrissey noted the other day, Santorum has campaigned with Reagan Democrats in mind. His populist style, Catholic faith, Italian-American roots and economic plan focussed on small businesses and reinvigorating manufacturing industry can all appeal to swing voters in the Rust and Coal belts.
On February 28th, the next big day in the GOP primary calendar, this could be a big advantage in Michigan. Conventional wisdom has it that Michigan is a lock for Romney because he was born there, his father was governor and he won it in 2008.
But conventional wisdom had it that Romney would easily take Colorado. Michigan is situated between Minnesota, where Santorum trounced Romney on Tuesday, and Pensylvania, Santourm's home state. He could have a real chance to win there and inflict a grievous wound on Romney.
This may be temporary but in the past fortnight or so we've had an uptick in the US economy. This has meant that the issue on which Romney is probably strongest has receded somewhat in the minds of Repubican primary voters. At the same time, Obama's war on the Catholic church, the Proposition 8 ruling and the Susan G. Komen for the Cure affair have shifted the national debate towards cultural issues.
7. Santorum can appeal to Reagan Democrats
As Hot Air's Ed Morrissey noted the other day, Santorum has campaigned with Reagan Democrats in mind. His populist style, Catholic faith, Italian-American roots and economic plan focussed on small businesses and reinvigorating manufacturing industry can all appeal to swing voters in the Rust and Coal belts.
On February 28th, the next big day in the GOP primary calendar, this could be a big advantage in Michigan. Conventional wisdom has it that Michigan is a lock for Romney because he was born there, his father was governor and he won it in 2008.
But conventional wisdom had it that Romney would easily take Colorado. Michigan is situated between Minnesota, where Santorum trounced Romney on Tuesday, and Pensylvania, Santourm's home state. He could have a real chance to win there and inflict a grievous wound on Romney.
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| A Santorum supporter and a local policeman at the Nashua rally. Photo: Toby Harnden |
8. Santorum is not the frontrunner
This is one of those things that's an advantage until it isn't. Having never been the frontrunner in national polls, Santorum has not yet been subjected to sustained negative attacks. His surge in Iowa came too late for that. With being the perceived frontrunner comes scrutiny and attacks - just ask Rick Perry and Gingrich.
For the time being, Santorum will continue to attract anti-Romney protest votes and avoid the full-bore media attacks that would surely come should he really look like becoming the GOP nominee. In McKinney, Texas today, Santorum said he had benefitted throughout his career fromthe fact that people never thought he could win anything. "The gift of being underestimated is a wonderful gift."
If he wins Michigan or Arizona or both, he probably becomes the frontrunner - and loses the advantage of being the underdog and that gift of being underestimated.
9. Santorum's family story
As a father of eight who has lost one child, Daniel, shortly after birth and has another, Bella, who suffers from a profound disability and is very unlikely to survive childhood, Santorum has a heart-rending personal story. Some politicians seem to exploit their families and even tragedy but Santorum speaks with such genuine emotion and dignity that is is almost impossible not to be affected.
When his daughter Bella was admitted to hospital just before the Florida primary, Santorum did not hesitate to stop campaigning to be at her bedside. It was the kind of action that connected him with voters on a visceral level.
Romney also has a great personal story but his family comes across as almost too perfect, as if wealth and privilege have come naturally to them. That might not be fair but it's a perception out there. Beginning last night, Romney has been working harder to emphasise his father's humble roots.
10. Santorum has been a solid debater
Romney has general excelled in debates. Gingrich had two great moments that made for big debate nights in South Carolina. Then Romney overwhelmed Gingrich in the two Florida debates. By contrast, Santorum has been solid and steadily improving throughout.
The next debate is in Mesa, Arizona on February 22nd. Expectations are important and having been the clear winner the last two times out, Romney will struggle to exceed expectations. Santorum, on the other hand, has never been hailed as a big debate winner - and the media, anxious to prolong the race and change the narrative, will be itching to emphasise the good in Santorum's peformance.
Bottom line: Rick Santorum needs more money, more staff, better organisation and luck to truly capitalise on his fabuous week. But he is not to be underestimated.
This is one of those things that's an advantage until it isn't. Having never been the frontrunner in national polls, Santorum has not yet been subjected to sustained negative attacks. His surge in Iowa came too late for that. With being the perceived frontrunner comes scrutiny and attacks - just ask Rick Perry and Gingrich.
For the time being, Santorum will continue to attract anti-Romney protest votes and avoid the full-bore media attacks that would surely come should he really look like becoming the GOP nominee. In McKinney, Texas today, Santorum said he had benefitted throughout his career fromthe fact that people never thought he could win anything. "The gift of being underestimated is a wonderful gift."
If he wins Michigan or Arizona or both, he probably becomes the frontrunner - and loses the advantage of being the underdog and that gift of being underestimated.
9. Santorum's family story
As a father of eight who has lost one child, Daniel, shortly after birth and has another, Bella, who suffers from a profound disability and is very unlikely to survive childhood, Santorum has a heart-rending personal story. Some politicians seem to exploit their families and even tragedy but Santorum speaks with such genuine emotion and dignity that is is almost impossible not to be affected.
When his daughter Bella was admitted to hospital just before the Florida primary, Santorum did not hesitate to stop campaigning to be at her bedside. It was the kind of action that connected him with voters on a visceral level.
Romney also has a great personal story but his family comes across as almost too perfect, as if wealth and privilege have come naturally to them. That might not be fair but it's a perception out there. Beginning last night, Romney has been working harder to emphasise his father's humble roots.
10. Santorum has been a solid debater
Romney has general excelled in debates. Gingrich had two great moments that made for big debate nights in South Carolina. Then Romney overwhelmed Gingrich in the two Florida debates. By contrast, Santorum has been solid and steadily improving throughout.
The next debate is in Mesa, Arizona on February 22nd. Expectations are important and having been the clear winner the last two times out, Romney will struggle to exceed expectations. Santorum, on the other hand, has never been hailed as a big debate winner - and the media, anxious to prolong the race and change the narrative, will be itching to emphasise the good in Santorum's peformance.
Bottom line: Rick Santorum needs more money, more staff, better organisation and luck to truly capitalise on his fabuous week. But he is not to be underestimated.
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