By Joshua Cook
Ted Cruz’s election was probably the biggest and most surprising victory of the 2012 campaign cycle.
Before the election, the now national Republican star was a virtually
unknown name on a national scale. He ran against Lieutenant Governor
David Dewhurst in the primary for the seat of a retiring Republican
senator, and spent the first part of his campaign running from out of
state. Cruz’s accomplishment was remarkable and has left people in
other states wondering how they can put similarly principled and
outspoken conservatives into office.
Is
there a Ted Cruz model? Cruz started out almost 45 points behind
Dewhurst and gradually inched forward. His campaign gained steam when
he received national Tea Party support as well as key endorsements
across the right leaning political spectrum, from Mark Levine and Sarah
Palin, to Ron and Rand Paul, Rick Santorum, Jim DeMint, Mike Lee, and
more. The Tea Party Express/FreedomWorks and Young Conservatives of
Texas also endorsed him.
Even
with that, neither Cruz nor Dewhurst got 50% of the votes in the
primary. In Texas (and South Carolina) election law this calls for a
runoff election, and the extra months gave Cruz the chance to pull yet
more votes from Dewhurst. Few today would be surprised to know that
Cruz won both debates, and those negative campaign ads against Cruz didn’t stick. Cruz’s statement that Dewhurst was a moderate,
however, did, and Dewhurst could do nothing to counter it. For Cruz, a
conservative in Texas, winning the primary was the most difficult part
of the campaign, and he made no gaffes to lose the general election.
Essentially,
Ted Cruz had the perfect combination of intelligence, principle,
conservative credentials and a bit of luck. That’s hardly a model, but
there is a lot that both candidates and constituents can learn from his
campaign. His primary problem was name recognition. This is no small
problem; countless studies have shown that name recognition is the most
powerful factor in people’s voting. Simply put, a huge percentage of
the population will simply vote for the person whose name they see as
more familiar, and you can’t brand yourself as the true conservative if
people don’t know who you are.
Initially
Cruz was not the only person running for the position of “principled
conservative” in the primary race. He had three other competitors for
the title, with Dewhurst running as the establishment moderate. Cruz
had to bring Dewhurst down to 49% of the vote and be the second place
finisher. At that point, everyone who had supported the other
candidates could shift their support to Cruz, who would win.
As
for beating the other conservatives, Cruz outworked them and earned key
endorsements from FreedomWorks and Club for Growth early on. Soon he
had also been endorsed by leading Senate Conservatives and commentators,
and had been put on the cover of the National Review. By the time the
primary rolled around in late May (as opposed to March, which is Texas’s
traditional primary month, another factor which worked in Cruz’s
favor), Cruz’s opposition had dropped out of the race anyway.
The
Tea Party showed in 2012 that it could win a primary better than any
other organization in this country. It did not, however, show that it
had judgment in its selection of candidates. There were cases
nationwide in which the Tea Party saw its primary job as winning
primaries, not general elections. The Tea Party name carries weight,
though, and the convergence of Tea Party backing with Cruz’s
intelligent, fearless and principled leadership was a powerful
combination.
So what can people hoping to beat Lindsay Graham learn from Ted Cruz’s run?
1) Choose candidates carefully – Cruz would not have won had he not been
the person he is. He doesn’t back down from principles, and is smart
enough to avoid making harmful statements. Both of those are important.
2) Local Tea Party organizations must endorse wisely.
3) Massive grassroots support can overcome incredible monetary obstacles,
but it cannot stand alone. Press coverage, endorsements, and all forms
of publicity must be aggressively sought. Without a combination of all
those factors, money and initial name recognition will win.
4) Run and vote in the primary to win the general election, not just the
primary. This is even more important in South Carolina than Texas,
where Republican candidates can more easily win statewide races. This
does not mean sacrificing principle; it means finding someone
sufficiently vetted to be reliable, and who can articulately and
forcefully advocate such principles.
This
seems like a simple and obvious list, but if Cruz’s run showed
anything, if there is a “Ted Cruz model,” it’s that a well run campaign
by a quality candidate means more than the models and statistics
politics has been reduced to recently. To beat Lindsay Graham and win
the general election, the people of South Carolina must do the hard work
of choosing and supporting someone who can win.
If
South Carolinians can find the right person, some factors will work in
that candidate’s favor. Lindsay Graham won’t be able to beat a
principled and intelligent opponent in a debate. The moderate label
will again be detrimental. Sen. Graham is the epitome of an
establishment moderate, no matter how many times he may claim to be a
“Ronald Reagan conservative.” See his voting record here. (embedded link)
Furthermore,
because Graham has been in the national spotlight for so long, with so
much antagonism from the conservative base, it should not be difficult
for an opponent to get necessary publicity and support. In this, a
Graham opponent will even have an advantage Cruz didn’t, because
conservatives nationwide are eager to help defeat Graham.
Choose
the candidate wisely, stay involved on a grassroots level, seek all
forms of publicity and endorsements, and campaign in a forceful,
principled manner. Cruz won in part by being the candidate people
nationwide have been waiting for, but there are more like him. It’s
time to find them, support them, and start changing the country’s
political direction.
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