David Brady, Hoover deputy director and the Davies Family Senior Fellow,
compares congressional elections from the 1880s to the present,
emphasizing eras of uncertainty, party parity, and surges in independent
voters. His primary theme is the importance of distinguishing between
party sorting versus party polarization and the widespread effects of
party sorting on several aspects of the elections, including incumbency
and election financing in the House and the Senate; local parties,
nationalization, and split tickets; and polling discrepancies with final
election results. He ends by applying these concepts to predictions on
the upcoming general elections.
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