Hoover Institution: The 2014 Congressional Elections in Historical Perspective

David Brady, Hoover deputy director and the Davies Family Senior Fellow, compares congressional elections from the 1880s to the present, emphasizing eras of uncertainty, party parity, and surges in independent voters. His primary theme is the importance of distinguishing between party sorting versus party polarization and the widespread effects of party sorting on several aspects of the elections, including incumbency and election financing in the House and the Senate; local parties, nationalization, and split tickets; and polling discrepancies with final election results. He ends by applying these concepts to predictions on the upcoming general elections.