Number of Democrats Falls to New Low, Down Six Points Since Election 2008From Rasmussen Reports
In December, the number of Americans identifying themselves as Democrats fell to the lowest level recorded in more than seven years of monthly tracking by Rasmussen Reports.
Currently, 35.5% of American adults view themselves as Democrats. That’s down from 36.0 a month ago and from 37.8% in October. Prior to December, the lowest total ever recorded for Democrats was 35.9%, a figure that was reached twice in 2005. See the History of Party Trends from January 2004 to the present.
The number of Republicans inched up by a point in December to 34.0%. That’s the highest total for Republicans since December 2007, just before the 2008 presidential campaign season began.
However, the number of Republicans in the country is essentially no different today than it was in November 2008 when Barack Obama was elected president.
The change since Obama’s election is that the number of Democrats has fallen by six percentage points and the number of voters not affiliated with either major party has grown by six. The number of adults not affiliated with either party is currently at 30.6%, up from 24.7% in November 2008.
Rasmussen Reports tracks this information based on telephone interviews with approximately 15,000 adults per month and has been doing so since November 2002. The margin of error for the full sample is less than one percentage point, with a 95% level of confidence.
Despite the changes, there are still more Democrats than Republicans in the nation. But the gap is down to 1.5 percentage points, the smallest since August 2005.
Between November 2004 and 2006, the Democratic advantage in partisan identification grew by 4.5 percentage points. That foreshadowed the Democrats' big gains in the 2006 midterm elections. The gap grew by another 1.5 percentage points between November 2006 and 2008 heading into the election of President Obama.
The gap between the parties is now very similar to the gap in November 2004, when George W. Bush won reelection. However, at that time, both parties had more support, and fewer were unaffiliated with either party. The number of unaffiliateds typically declines as major elections draw near.
Keep in mind that figures reported in this article are for all adults, not likely voters. Republicans are a bit more likely to participate in elections than Democrats.
Obama's overall approval rating in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll fell below 50% for the first time in July. A month-by-month review of the president’s ratings shows that they held steady in August and September before declining over the past several months.
Data from our monthly partisan identification survey is used to set weighting targets for other Rasmussen Reports surveys. The targets are based on results from the previous three months.
When Obama was inaugurated last January, Democrats had a seven-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot. Republicans now have a five-point advantage. That change has been brought about partly by the declining number of Democrats and partly by the fact that unaffiliated voters are now more supportive of the GOP.
Rasmussen Reports has released Senate polls for Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada, Illinois, Connecticut, Missouri, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and California. Collectively, these polls define a difficult political environment for Democrats as 2010 begins. But there's still a long way to go until November, so Democrats have time to implement damage control efforts.
Rasmussen Reports also has released polls on the 2010 governor’s races in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina and Texas.
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